Five-Year Trend of Gastric Cancer in Northern Iran

Abstract

Background: Gastric cancer is the third most common cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Objectives: The present study analyzed the incidence trends of gastric cancer in Mazandaran province between 2014 and 2018. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, the incidence rate trends and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated using joinpoint regression analyses. A P-value of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant (P < 0.05). Results: There were 3,473 new cases (2,365 males and 1,108 females), with a mean age of 68.3 ± 13.9 years; the mean ages of female and male patients were 67.2 ± 14.9 years and 68.9 ± 13.4 years, respectively (P < 0.001). Approximately 40% of new cases were registered in the 50 - 69-year age group, with no significant difference between the frequency of males and females (39.8% and 37.5%, respectively, P = 0.2). The age-standardized rate (ASR) of gastric cancer was significantly higher in men than in women (26.3 vs. 12.4, P < 0.001). Moreover, joinpoint regression analysis showed a non-significant decrease in incidence trends in both males (AAPC = 0.1%, 95% CI: -5.2 to 5.6, P = 1.0) and females (AAPC = -1.6%, 95% CI: -11.2 to 9.1, P = 1.0) between 2014 and 2018. We found a higher ASR of gastric cancer in the urban population (17.4) compared to the rural population (16.2) (P < 0.01). Additionally, a significant incidence trend was observed in the urban population (AAPC = 15.8%, 95% CI: 4.7 to 28.0, P < 0.01). Conclusions: The incidence of gastric cancer showed an increasing trend until 2018, which was significantly higher in men and older age groups. Some of these changes may be attributed to improvements in the cancer registration system in Iran, and there may be a possibility of an increase in the incidence of gastric cancer due to rising risk factors contributing to the disease in the country.