A Survey on Mortality Trend in the West and East of Iran Using the Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Model

Abstract

Background: Information on the pattern and trend of mortality with regards to sex and location gives us a detailed insight into the population health which is an essential component in policy debates to improve the health system. Objectives: The purpose of this study is to explore and compare the mortality pattern in the west and east of Iran. Methods: To assess the spatial patterns, we used disease mapping and spatial dependency with first-order neighborhood structure. Incorporating neighborhood structure with Bayesian method assisted us in using smooth standardized mortality ratios (SMR). Results: Mean overall smooth SMRs in the west and east were 1.005 and 0.998, respectively, and mortality trend in these two regions were approximately smooth. The most favorable conditions were associated with females in the east and females in the west had a higher risk of death. Conclusions: The health system in Iran has been effectively improved and with recent essential health policies, it is expected to see a negative trend in mortality rates in the near future.