Metacognitive Beliefs, Academic Expectations Stress, and Achievement: A Path Analysis Among Iranian Upper Secondary Students

Abstract

Background: Students’ academic achievement is influenced by a wide range of cognitive and emotional factors, among which metacognitive beliefs and academic expectation-related stress are considered key determinants. Metacognitive beliefs refer to individuals’ attitudes and beliefs about their own thoughts, memory processes, and capacity for cognitive control. Objectives: This study aimed to examine the relationship between metacognitive beliefs and academic achievement, with emphasis on the mediating role of academic expectations stress among upper secondary school students in Jiroft County. Methods: This correlational study used path analysis to examine the proposed relationships. The target population comprised upper secondary school students in Jiroft County during the 2024 - 2025 academic year. Based on a power analysis and using multistage cluster sampling, 800 students were selected. Data were collected using standardized instruments, including the Metacognitions Questionnaire (MCQ-30), which assesses five dimensions: negative beliefs about uncontrollability and danger, positive beliefs about worry, cognitive self-consciousness, cognitive confidence, and the need to control thoughts; the Academic Expectations Stress Inventory; and a measure of academic achievement. All assumptions for path analysis were tested and met. Parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood. Data were analyzed using path analysis in LISREL. Results: The structural model showed excellent fit (χ2/df = 1.92, RMSEA = 0.035, CFI = 0.97, GFI = 0.97). All five dimensions of dysfunctional metacognitive beliefs significantly and directly predicted lower academic performance (P < 0.001), with negative beliefs about uncontrollability and danger showing the strongest effect (β = -0.29). Academic expectations stress also directly and negatively predicted academic performance (β = -0.05, P < 0.001). However, only three dimensions—positive beliefs about worry (β = 0.15, P < 0.01), cognitive self-consciousness (β = 0.17, P < 0.001), and cognitive confidence (β = 0.15, P < 0.01)—significantly increased academic expectations stress. Negative beliefs and the need to control thoughts did not predict stress. Accordingly, academic expectations stress partially mediated the effects of positive beliefs, cognitive self-consciousness, and cognitive confidence (indirect effects, P < 0.05), whereas the other two dimensions showed only direct effects. The model explained 87% of the variance in academic performance. Conclusions: Dysfunctional metacognitive beliefs reduce students’ academic achievement both directly and, in some dimensions, indirectly by increasing academic expectations stress. Notably, negative beliefs about uncontrollability and danger, the strongest predictor, operate solely through direct cognitive resource depletion, whereas positive beliefs, self-consciousness, and low confidence also impair performance by increasing stress. These findings underscore the need for dimension-specific educational interventions. Modifying negative beliefs and reducing excessive self-consciousness should be prioritized alongside general stress management programs, particularly in disadvantaged socioeconomic contexts such as Jiroft.