A Problem Oriented Foresight Model for Population

Abstract

Background: The choice of methods for shaping the effective foresight model has always been challenging. Future studies are supposed to re-integrate and re-frame issues in order to provide novel solutions. It is very difficult to choose from a large number of (about 100) methods from various disciplines and different paradigmatic and methodological roots while avoiding stereotypes. Methods: Involving both the experts of the field and the future researchers, a new approach for selection of method in forward-looking policy is presented, and based on policy challenges, future researchers were asked to prioritize methods to improve population policy by attractiveness and capability criteria. Results: As the final result, four methods were chosen considering the main aspects of attractiveness and capability of each method to improve each specific policy issue. Priorities were determined by calculating the total number of choices by capability of method, multiplied by the attractiveness of methods through the questionnaire to form the foresight model: casual layered analysis (CLA) with 2250 points, scenario with 1596 points, expert panels with 1560 points, and interviews with 1232 points, which were the top four methods, respectively. Conclusions: The path and logic used in this research to select the model of population foresight can be generalized to other public policy areas and can be a methodological basis for other applied interdisciplinary studies.