Comparison of Different Approaches in Estimating Initial Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in the Islamic Republic of Iran
| Author | Nasrin Talkhi | en |
| Author | Nayereh Esmaeilzadeh | en |
| Author | Mohammad Taghi Shakeri | en |
| Author | Zahra Pasdar | en |
| Orcid | Nayereh Esmaeilzadeh [0000-0002-9499-0433] | en |
| Orcid | Mohammad Taghi Shakeri [0000-0002-8287-9594] | en |
| Orcid | Zahra Pasdar [0000-0001-7632-7171] | en |
| Issued Date | 2021-06-30 | en |
| Abstract | Background: The basic reproduction number (R0) is an epidemic threshold parameter that indicates the magnitude of disease transmission and thus allows suggestions for the planning of control measures. Objectives: Our aim in this study was to compare different approaches for estimating R0 in the early stage of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and discern the best-fitting model. Methods: The dataset was derived from cumulative laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases from 26th February to 30th May 2020 in Iran. The methods of exponential growth (EG) rate, maximum likelihood (ML), time-dependent (TD) reproduction number, attack rate (AR), and sequential Bayesian (SB) model were used. The gamma distribution (mean 4.41 ± 3.17 days) was used for serial interval (SI) distribution. The best-fitting method was selected according to the lowest root mean square error (RMSE). Results: We obtained the following estimated R0 [95% confidence interval]: 1.55 [1.54; 1.55], 1.46 [1.45; 1.46], 1.31 [1.30; 1.32], and 1.40 [1.39; 1.41] using EG, ML, TD, and SB methods, respectively. Additionally, the EG and ML methods showed an overestimation of R0, and the SB method showed to be under-fitting in the estimation of R0. The AR method estimated R0 equal to one. The TD method had the lowest RMSE. Conclusions: The simulated and actual R0 of TD showed that this method had a good fit for actual data and the lowest RMSE. Therefore, the TD method is the most appropriate method with the best performance in estimating actual R0 values. | en |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.5812/jamm.113224 | en |
| Keyword | COVID-19 | en |
| Keyword | Initial Reproduction Number | en |
| Keyword | Exponential Growth Rate | en |
| Keyword | Maximum Likelihood | en |
| Keyword | Attack Rate | en |
| Keyword | Sequential Bayesian Model | en |
| Keyword | Time-dependent Reproduction Number | en |
| Publisher | Brieflands | en |
| Title | Comparison of Different Approaches in Estimating Initial Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in the Islamic Republic of Iran | en |
| Type | Research Article | en |
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