Compilation and Analysis of Driving Factors for Future Compatible Scenarios of Social Security Services in the Framework of Macroeconomic Variables

Abstract

Background: One important duty of every government is to provide social security services to society's members; these services can be affected by variables such as economic and social factors. Objectives: This study was designed to provide an image of social security services in the future using the future research approach and relying on macroeconomic variables based on scenarios. Methods: This research was applied in nature, adopting a mixed-methods approach (qualitative and quantitative), grounded in foresight methodology, and conducted at an exploratory level. Scenario-driving variables — those that have occurred in the past or are currently observable and influence the future of social security services — were screened and identified through a comprehensive literature review and the fuzzy Delphi method. This process was conducted using experts' opinions (university faculty members and social security organization managers with relevant knowledge, experience, and interest in research in this area). Next, the impact and effectiveness of each variable were determined using MicMac analysis. Finally, balanced interaction analysis was applied using the Scenario Wizard software to develop scenarios. Results: Twenty-four relevant studies were identified and reviewed by experts. Twenty-four indicators in four dimensions were identified. Nine indicators or driving factors were extracted, including receipt of government claims, domestic and foreign investment, proportionality of wages with inflation, proportionality of tariffs with the inflation rate, direct and indirect treatment costs, attrition rate, proportionality of pensions, disability rate, and unemployment rate. Subsequently, three possible scenarios were developed as the final output of the research. Conclusions: Scenario analysis showed that the overall trend is relatively favorable for the future of social security services. Therefore, it is recommended that the country's Social Security Organization take necessary action to realize, maintain, and promote the predicted favorable scenarios by adopting appropriate measures and strategies, taking into account the driving variables identified in the research.